We have published a new business cycle forecast. We argue that instead of a renewed global expansion, we are heading to a recession of a global scale. We concentrate on economies of China and the United States as they are crucial when determining the direction of the global economy.
The liquidity operations by the global central banks do, however, make timing of the start of the recession exceptionally difficult at the moment. Partly reflecting their actions, the risk of a global asset market crash has grown.
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