We base our forecasts on scenarios. When forecasting the development of an economy or the price of an asset, one can assume that it has several different futures based on future developments. For example, economic or political shocks can affect its price. The probability of different scenarios can be assessed using information obtained from financial markets, real economy and on history.
In Q-reviews, we also present nowcasts, which refer to the forecasts of the growth rates of the real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the current quarter. Nowcasts are needed because the standard measures for the GDP are published after a considerable lag and are typically subject to subsequent revisions, indicating that the coincident state of the economy is always uncertain. Our nowcasts for the current quarter are based on statistical models where all relevant information available at the time of nowcasting is utilized.
Our approach is to use state of the art methods which are based on the up-to-date knowledge on business cycle fluctuations, growth prospects, their association with the financial markets, and the very latest econometric techniques.
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