Deprcon is a close proximity estimate on the outlook of the economy and financial markets. In practice it is assumed to cover the next 1-2 quarters. Values above three indicate an economic expansion and values below three indicate a downturn. Extreme values indicate either that an economy is in danger of overheating (5) or that is heading to a recession/depression (1).
We construct the estimate using information on the stock market, financial markets and our recession and crisis probability forecasts. This means that even if an economy is growing strongly, our outlook for it may be negative if recession and/or crisis probabilities are high. We report the crisis probabilities in business cycle forecasts (Q-review) and Trend and Topics -reports.