Business cycles and economic crises are a fact of life. They affect interest rates, prices of assets and demand for services and commodities. Preparing for business cycle fluctuations and crises is thus crucial in determining the success of firms and investors, both small and large.
Our business cycle and crises forecasts, reported in the Quarterly Review, are based on the statistical modeling methods and on our analysis on the different aspects of the world economy. We analyze and forecasts business cycles and risks for all world economy, but concentrate especially on the United States, the Eurozone and Finland.
Our GDP forecasts use different scenarios to analyze the future paths for the global economy and the aforementioned economies. The scenario forecasting is reasonable as economies usually have more than one path to follow. We generally rely on three different scenarios: the most likely, the pessimistic and the optimistic one, analyzing the likelihood of these scenarios. Past quarterly analyses and forecasts can be found from our publications page.
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