Business cycle is not going away. Forecasts for business cycle fluctuations are crucial in determining the success of firms, both small and large. Our business cycle forecasts, reported in Q-review, are based on the statistical modeling methods that derive from the most recent academic research of business cycle fluctuations.
Our forecasts are constructed for all three economic areas (Eurozone, Finland and the US), indicating that they depend on each other. Forecasts are based on the dynamic forecasting models where forecasts are constructed iteratively and based on different scenarios on future development. Our GDP forecasts use different scenarios to analyze the future paths for these economies. We generally rely on three different scenarios: the most likely, the pessimistic and the optimistic one. We also analyze the likelihood of these scenarios.
The scenario forecasting is reasonable as economies usually have more than one path to follow. All GDP forecasts are based on dynamic forecasting models, where the forecasts are constructed iteratively. For example, the three-quarter forecast is essentially based on the two-quarter forecasts and so on. You will find our older quarterly forecasts from our publications page.
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