The highly obvious, probable threats that nobody should say they never saw coming –yet are not always getting the attention that will resolve them.
– Michele Wucker, March 15, 2018
When our suspicions about the current global expansion a…
2019 has started more calmly after a very volatile year-end in the markets. Focus has been on the trade deal between China and the US and the words of the central bankers, most notably those of Jay Powell. However, this is all just a distraction, a s…
The world economy has never faced a more perilous situation. While many have just started to debate whether a recession will start in 2019 or 2020, very few perceive the ‘black hole’ the global economy is about to get sucked into.
The hole has two…
Whatever has the nature of arising, has the nature of
Errata in the effects of QE corrected 10/21. Market liquidity
The Eurozone is a fragile financial mammoth. While its GDP lacks the US by around $3 trillion, assets of the banking sector are some 240 percent of GDP vs. around 90 percent in the US. It has been kept standing only through the large-scale asset purc…
The general storyline of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) goes about like this: funds from all over the world headed to the US, where the banks, to finance the housing market boom, developed unsound financial products which then brought down the glo…
The economic crisis brewing in Turkey seems to have surprised
The world economy is hurtling towards a global crisis. The
We’ve been warning on the risks of so called unorthodox central bank policies, including zero and negative interest rates and asset buying programs, for several years (see, e.g. this, this and this). Now, the era of global quantitative tightening, enacted by the Federal Reserve, will bring an end to the “global synchronized growth”.
Several economic indicators have turned to the south at the