Prepper’s Bunker: Coronavirus update
We have been warning about the impending economic crisis since March 2017. Central bankers and Chinese leaders have been able to postpone the onset of the crisis for…
Bonds
Q-Review 4/2019: Into the Abyss
The economic calm which has succeeded the turbulent conclusion to 2018 was abruptly shattered on the 16th of September. On that day, rates in the repo markets spiked by 248 basis points to more than double the overnight lending rate of the…
Recession cometh
Errata in the third paragraph (“steepening” -> “flattening”) corrected in 04/08.
Yield curve inversion has spooked the markets. In all honesty, it should not have come as a surprise. After the Federal Reserve pivoted early January and …
The scenarios of the collapse
2019 has started more calmly after a very volatile year-end in the markets. Focus has been on the trade deal between China and the US and the words of the central bankers, most notably those of Jay Powell. However, this is all just a distraction, a s…
Q-review 4/2018: The path to the Global Depression
The world economy has never faced a more perilous situation. While many have just started to debate whether a recession will start in 2019 or 2020, very few perceive the ‘black hole’ the global economy is about to get sucked into.
The hole has two…
The end of the most manipulated business cycle—ever
Whatever has the nature of arising, has the nature of… Read More »The end of the most manipulated business cycle—ever
The (ominous) problem with global liquidity
Errata in the effects of QE corrected 10/21. Market liquidity… Read More »The (ominous) problem with global liquidity
Q-Review 3/2018: How the Eurozone breaks
The Eurozone is a fragile financial mammoth. While its GDP lacks the US by around $3 trillion, assets of the banking sector are some 240 percent of GDP vs. around 90 percent in the US. It has been kept standing only through the large-scale asset purc…
10 years from Lehman. And nothing has been fixed
The general storyline of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) goes about like this: funds from all over the world headed to the US, where the banks, to finance the housing market boom, developed unsound financial products which then brought down the glo…
Central bank, my Libor’s keeper?
The sudden and fast rise in the London Interbank Offered… Read More »Central bank, my Libor’s keeper?