Central banks

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China (and the world economy) at the end of the road

By |2019-11-22T15:26:17+02:00marraskuu 20th, 2019|Central banks, China, English, Global depression, Global economy|

We have been monitoring China closely since March 2017. We were one of the first to show that China had driven the global business cycle since 2009 and that the rem...

Kommentit pois päältä artikkelissa China (and the world economy) at the end of the road

The destruction of the European banking sector

By |2019-11-06T08:10:05+02:00lokakuu 3rd, 2019|Banks, Central banks, English, Financial crisis, preparation, Recession|

For some reason, the dire situation of European banks is not causing further alarm. This is strange, as it is the exact place where the new global banking crisis is likely to start. What makes it even stranger is that recession is approaching the ...

Kommentit pois päältä artikkelissa The destruction of the European banking sector

Don’t trust the liquidity

By |2019-11-05T17:41:36+02:00syyskuu 12th, 2019|Central banks, China, Economic growth, English, Financial crisis, Global economy, Recession|

There is renewed hope in the markets after central banks, most-recently the ECB and China, have added easing measures. The working narrative is that these will, once again, renew global growth and allow governments, corporations and consumers to go e...

Kommentit pois päältä artikkelissa Don’t trust the liquidity

Q-Review 3/2019: The Endgame

By |2019-11-05T09:10:43+02:00syyskuu 10th, 2019|Central banks, English, Financial crisis, Forecasts, Global economy, Recession|

A recession is approaching. Almost anywhere in the world one looks, economic indicators are in decline. As we have argued since March 2017, the coming recession wil...

Kommentit pois päältä artikkelissa Q-Review 3/2019: The Endgame

Will central banks survive?

By |2019-10-10T08:00:47+02:00elokuu 26th, 2019|Central banks, English, Financial markets, Global economy|

Almost all economists and the vast majority of the general population erroneously believe that central banks are, basically, indestructible. And most fail to appreciate that central banks are different from normal commercial banks in just two respect...

Kommentit pois päältä artikkelissa Will central banks survive?

Where from here?

By |2019-10-10T08:01:25+02:00elokuu 8th, 2019|Central banks, China, English, Global economy, Recession|

Global stock markets have been wobbly after the Federal Reserve failed to impress and the trade war heated-up. Combined with the weakening global economic outlook, there are not many reasons for stocks to rally. Many are also wondering about the d...

Kommentit pois päältä artikkelissa Where from here?

A tale of two deflations

By |2019-10-10T08:02:08+02:00elokuu 5th, 2019|Central banks, Economic growth, English, Financial crisis, Recession, Zombie companies|

This post has been co-written with Dr. Peter Nyberg. Japanification is a term that has re-emerged recently.  It r...

Kommentit pois päältä artikkelissa A tale of two deflations

It works, until it doesn't

By |2019-10-10T08:02:44+02:00heinäkuu 26th, 2019|Central banks, China, Economic growth, English, Financial crisis, Global economy, Recession|

As expected, increased ’dovishness’ by the Fed has gotten markets rallying. Both the S&P 500 and DJIA have touched new highs. From the perspective of late last year, such massive rallies seemed unlikely indeed. While some kind of a Fed pivot was ...

Kommentit pois päältä artikkelissa It works, until it doesn't

Recession cometh

By |2019-10-10T08:07:11+02:00maaliskuu 27th, 2019|Bonds, Central banks, China, Credit, English, Global economy, Growth forecasts, Recession, Zombie companies|

Errata in the third paragraph ("steepening" -> "flattening") corrected in 04/08. Yield curve inversion has spooked the markets. In all honesty, it should not have come as a surprise. After the Federal Reserve pivoted early January and ...

Kommentit pois päältä artikkelissa Recession cometh
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