China

Etusivu/China

The end of the ‘Chinese Miracle’

|2020-01-10T09:31:14+02:0010 tammikuun, 2020|China, Economic growth, English, Financial crisis, Global depression, Global economy|

We have been following China closely for nearly four years. We first warned about the unsustainability of China’s growth in March 2017 and have continued to issue w...

Q-Review 4/2019: Into the Abyss

|2019-12-19T16:20:57+02:0019 joulukuun, 2019|Banks, Bonds, Central banks, China, Credit, English, Global depression, Global economy, Growth forecasts, Recession, Stock market, Zombie companies|

The economic calm which has succeeded the turbulent conclusion to 2018 was abruptly shattered on the 16th of September. On that day, rates in the repo markets spiked by 248 basis points to more than double the overnight lending rate of the...

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China (and the world economy) at the end of the road

|2019-11-22T15:26:17+02:0020 marraskuun, 2019|Central banks, China, English, Global depression, Global economy|

We have been monitoring China closely since March 2017. We were one of the first to show that China had driven the global business cycle since 2009 and that the rem...

Kommentit pois päältä artikkelissa China (and the world economy) at the end of the road

Don’t trust the liquidity

|2019-11-05T17:41:36+02:0012 syyskuun, 2019|Central banks, China, Economic growth, English, Financial crisis, Global economy, Recession|

There is renewed hope in the markets after central banks, most-recently the ECB and China, have added easing measures. The working narrative is that these will, once again, renew global growth and allow governments, corporations and consumers to go e...

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Where from here?

|2019-10-10T08:01:25+03:008 elokuun, 2019|Central banks, China, English, Global economy, Recession|

Global stock markets have been wobbly after the Federal Reserve failed to impress and the trade war heated-up. Combined with the weakening global economic outlook, there are not many reasons for stocks to rally. Many are also wondering about the d...

Kommentit pois päältä artikkelissa Where from here?

It works, until it doesn't

|2019-10-10T08:02:44+03:0026 heinäkuun, 2019|Central banks, China, Economic growth, English, Financial crisis, Global economy, Recession|

As expected, increased ’dovishness’ by the Fed has gotten markets rallying. Both the S&P 500 and DJIA have touched new highs. From the perspective of late last year, such massive rallies seemed unlikely indeed. While some kind of a Fed pivot was ...

Kommentit pois päältä artikkelissa It works, until it doesn't

Recession cometh

|2019-10-10T08:07:11+03:0027 maaliskuun, 2019|Bonds, Central banks, China, Credit, English, Global economy, Growth forecasts, Recession, Zombie companies|

Errata in the third paragraph ("steepening" -> "flattening") corrected in 04/08. Yield curve inversion has spooked the markets. In all honesty, it should not have come as a surprise. After the Federal Reserve pivoted early January and ...

Kommentit pois päältä artikkelissa Recession cometh

The failing engines of global growth

|2019-10-10T08:11:26+03:0017 helmikuun, 2019|Central banks, China, Economic growth, English, Global economy, Zombie companies|

The global slowdown has been much discussed lately. A slowdown in Europe and China was considered to be the main reason for the December stock market rout combined with the balance sheet normalization (QT) program of the Federal Reserve. What is behi...

Kommentit pois päältä artikkelissa The failing engines of global growth

The Gray Rhino known as China

|2019-10-10T08:12:25+03:0023 tammikuun, 2019|China, Credit, English, Financial crisis, Global economy|

The highly obvious, probable threats that nobody should say they never saw coming –yet are not always getting the attention that will resolve them. - Michele Wucker, March 15, 2018 When our suspicions about the current global expansion a...

Kommentit pois päältä artikkelissa The Gray Rhino known as China
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