As shown by the ghastly February PMI prints from China, the coronavirus is about to hit the global economy like a sledgehammer. It has already caused serious disruption in production, air travel and commerce worldwide. And more is on the way.
Howe…
In this constantly updating blog -post, we follow the path of the crisis put in motion by the coronavirus.
The outbreak of the coronavirus epidemic in China has shaken the global asset markets—and with good reason.
The coronavirus has the potential of being the ‘trigger’ which will push the world into a global depression. Here, we briefly explain why.
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We have been following China closely for nearly four years. We first warned about the unsustainability of China’s growth in March 2017 and have continued to issue w…
The economic calm which has succeeded the turbulent conclusion to 2018 was abruptly shattered on the 16th of September. On that day, rates in the repo markets spiked by 248 basis points to more than double the overnight lending rate of the…
We have been monitoring China closely since March 2017. We were one of the first to show that China had driven the global business cycle since 2009 and that the rem…
There is renewed hope in the markets after central banks, most-recently the ECB and China, have added easing measures. The working narrative is that these will, once again, renew global growth and allow governments, corporations and consumers to go e…
Global stock markets have been wobbly after the Federal Reserve failed to impress and the trade war heated-up. Combined with the weakening global economic outlook, there are not many reasons for stocks to rally.
Many are also wondering about the d…
As expected, increased ’dovishness’ by the Fed has gotten markets rallying. Both the S&P 500 and DJIA have touched new highs. From the perspective of late last year, such massive rallies seemed unlikely indeed. While some kind of a Fed pivot was …
Errata in the third paragraph (“steepening” -> “flattening”) corrected in 04/08.
Yield curve inversion has spooked the markets. In all honesty, it should not have come as a surprise. After the Federal Reserve pivoted early January and …
