The end of the ‘Chinese Miracle’
We have been following China closely for nearly four years. We first warned about the unsustainability of China’s growth in March 2017 and have continued to issue w...
Q-Review 4/2019: Into the Abyss
The economic calm which has succeeded the turbulent conclusion to 2018 was abruptly shattered on the 16th of September. On that day, rates in the repo markets spiked by 248 basis points to more than double the overnight lending rate of the...
China (and the world economy) at the end of the road
We have been monitoring China closely since March 2017. We were one of the first to show that China had driven the global business cycle since 2009 and that the rem...
Don’t trust the liquidity
There is renewed hope in the markets after central banks, most-recently the ECB and China, have added easing measures. The working narrative is that these will, once again, renew global growth and allow governments, corporations and consumers to go e...
Where from here?
Global stock markets have been wobbly after the Federal Reserve failed to impress and the trade war heated-up. Combined with the weakening global economic outlook, there are not many reasons for stocks to rally. Many are also wondering about the d...
It works, until it doesn't
As expected, increased ’dovishness’ by the Fed has gotten markets rallying. Both the S&P 500 and DJIA have touched new highs. From the perspective of late last year, such massive rallies seemed unlikely indeed. While some kind of a Fed pivot was ...
Recession cometh
Errata in the third paragraph ("steepening" -> "flattening") corrected in 04/08. Yield curve inversion has spooked the markets. In all honesty, it should not have come as a surprise. After the Federal Reserve pivoted early January and ...
The world economy: The way of Japan?
Some have started to speculate that the world economy will [...]
The failing engines of global growth
The global slowdown has been much discussed lately. A slowdown in Europe and China was considered to be the main reason for the December stock market rout combined with the balance sheet normalization (QT) program of the Federal Reserve. What is behi...
The Gray Rhino known as China
The highly obvious, probable threats that nobody should say they never saw coming –yet are not always getting the attention that will resolve them. - Michele Wucker, March 15, 2018 When our suspicions about the current global expansion a...