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China (and the world economy) at the end of the road

By |2019-11-22T15:26:17+02:00marraskuu 20th, 2019|Central banks, China, English, Global depression, Global economy|

We have been monitoring China closely since March 2017. We were one of the first to show that China had driven the global business cycle since 2009 and that the rem...

Kommentit pois päältä artikkelissa China (and the world economy) at the end of the road

Don’t trust the liquidity

By |2019-11-05T17:41:36+02:00syyskuu 12th, 2019|Central banks, China, Economic growth, English, Financial crisis, Global economy, Recession|

There is renewed hope in the markets after central banks, most-recently the ECB and China, have added easing measures. The working narrative is that these will, once again, renew global growth and allow governments, corporations and consumers to go e...

Kommentit pois päältä artikkelissa Don’t trust the liquidity

Where from here?

By |2019-10-10T08:01:25+02:00elokuu 8th, 2019|Central banks, China, English, Global economy, Recession|

Global stock markets have been wobbly after the Federal Reserve failed to impress and the trade war heated-up. Combined with the weakening global economic outlook, there are not many reasons for stocks to rally. Many are also wondering about the d...

Kommentit pois päältä artikkelissa Where from here?

It works, until it doesn't

By |2019-10-10T08:02:44+02:00heinäkuu 26th, 2019|Central banks, China, Economic growth, English, Financial crisis, Global economy, Recession|

As expected, increased ’dovishness’ by the Fed has gotten markets rallying. Both the S&P 500 and DJIA have touched new highs. From the perspective of late last year, such massive rallies seemed unlikely indeed. While some kind of a Fed pivot was ...

Kommentit pois päältä artikkelissa It works, until it doesn't

Recession cometh

By |2019-10-10T08:07:11+02:00maaliskuu 27th, 2019|Bonds, Central banks, China, Credit, English, Global economy, Growth forecasts, Recession, Zombie companies|

Errata in the third paragraph ("steepening" -> "flattening") corrected in 04/08. Yield curve inversion has spooked the markets. In all honesty, it should not have come as a surprise. After the Federal Reserve pivoted early January and ...

Kommentit pois päältä artikkelissa Recession cometh

The failing engines of global growth

By |2019-10-10T08:11:26+02:00helmikuu 17th, 2019|Central banks, China, Economic growth, English, Global economy, Zombie companies|

The global slowdown has been much discussed lately. A slowdown in Europe and China was considered to be the main reason for the December stock market rout combined with the balance sheet normalization (QT) program of the Federal Reserve. What is behi...

Kommentit pois päältä artikkelissa The failing engines of global growth

The Gray Rhino known as China

By |2019-10-10T08:12:25+02:00tammikuu 23rd, 2019|China, Credit, English, Financial crisis, Global economy|

The highly obvious, probable threats that nobody should say they never saw coming –yet are not always getting the attention that will resolve them. - Michele Wucker, March 15, 2018 When our suspicions about the current global expansion a...

Kommentit pois päältä artikkelissa The Gray Rhino known as China

The end of the most manipulated business cycle—ever

By |2018-12-21T14:46:27+02:00joulukuu 6th, 2018|Bonds, Central banks, China, Credit, Emerging markets, English, Financial crisis, Global economy, preparation, Stock market|

Whatever has the nature of arising, has the nature of [...]

Kommentit pois päältä artikkelissa The end of the most manipulated business cycle—ever
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