Prepper’s Bunker: Coronavirus update
We have been warning about the impending economic crisis since March 2017. Central bankers and Chinese leaders have been able to postpone the onset of the crisis for…
Credit
Q-Review 4/2019: Into the Abyss
The economic calm which has succeeded the turbulent conclusion to 2018 was abruptly shattered on the 16th of September. On that day, rates in the repo markets spiked by 248 basis points to more than double the overnight lending rate of the…
Recession cometh
Errata in the third paragraph (“steepening” -> “flattening”) corrected in 04/08.
Yield curve inversion has spooked the markets. In all honesty, it should not have come as a surprise. After the Federal Reserve pivoted early January and …
Q-review 1/2019: Why the global growth model is broken
For some years now, we’ve been very wary of the legitimacy of the “economic recovery”. In June 2013, we wrote:
It is possible that the banking secto…
Manias, Panics and Crashes. History repeats.
The stock market has been rallying lately. It has been supported by the People’s Bank of China (PBoC), which started its liquidity operations in mid-December, and the Federal Reserve (Fed), which changed to a much more ‘dovish’ tone in January. But, …
The Gray Rhino known as China
The highly obvious, probable threats that nobody should say they never saw coming –yet are not always getting the attention that will resolve them.
– Michele Wucker, March 15, 2018
When our suspicions about the current global expansion a…
The scenarios of the collapse
2019 has started more calmly after a very volatile year-end in the markets. Focus has been on the trade deal between China and the US and the words of the central bankers, most notably those of Jay Powell. However, this is all just a distraction, a s…
Q-review 4/2018: The path to the Global Depression
The world economy has never faced a more perilous situation. While many have just started to debate whether a recession will start in 2019 or 2020, very few perceive the ‘black hole’ the global economy is about to get sucked into.
The hole has two…
The end of the most manipulated business cycle—ever
Whatever has the nature of arising, has the nature of… Read More »The end of the most manipulated business cycle—ever
The (ominous) problem with global liquidity
Errata in the effects of QE corrected 10/21. Market liquidity… Read More »The (ominous) problem with global liquidity