Credit

The approaching European (global) banking crisis

2020-05-222020-05-22
by Tuomas Malinen
Banks, Coronavirus, Credit, Crisis Preparation, Eurozone, Financial crisis, Global depression, Zombie companies

One thing missing from basically all economic analyses of the… Read More »The approaching European (global) banking crisis

Prepper’s Bunker: Coronavirus update II

2020-03-122020-05-04
by Tuomas Malinen
Banks, Bonds, Coronavirus, Credit, English, Financial crisis, Financial markets, Global depression, Global economy

We have been warning about the impending economic crisis since March 2017. Central bankers and Chinese leaders have been able to postpone the onset of the crisis for…

Q-Review 4/2019: Into the Abyss

2019-12-192020-04-27
by Tuomas Malinen
Banks, Bonds, Central banks, China, Credit, English, Global depression, Global economy, Growth forecasts, Recession, Stock market, Zombie companies

The economic calm which has succeeded the turbulent conclusion to 2018 was abruptly shattered on the 16^th of September. On that day, rates in the repo markets spiked by 248 basis points to more than double the overnight lending rate of the…

Recession cometh

2019-03-272020-04-23
by Tuomas Malinen
Bonds, Central banks, China, Credit, English, Global economy, Growth forecasts, Recession, Zombie companies

Errata in the third paragraph (“steepening” -> “flattening”) corrected in 04/08.

Yield curve inversion has spooked the markets. In all honesty, it should not have come as a surprise. After the Federal Reserve pivoted early January and …

Why the global growth model is broken

2019-03-052020-05-10
by Tuomas Malinen
Central banks, Credit, Economic growth, English, Eurozone, Global economy, Growth forecasts, Stock market

For some years now, we’ve been very wary of the legitimacy of the “economic recovery”.

Manias, Panics and Crashes. History repeats.

2019-02-072020-04-28
by Tuomas Malinen
Central banks, Credit, English, Financial crisis, Financial markets, Global economy, Preparation

The stock market has been rallying lately. It has been supported by the People’s Bank of China (PBoC), which started its liquidity operations in mid-December, and the Federal Reserve (Fed), which changed to a much more ‘dovish’ tone in January. But, …

The Gray Rhino known as China

2019-01-232020-04-28
by Tuomas Malinen
China, Credit, English, Financial crisis, Global economy

The highly obvious, probable threats that nobody should say they never saw coming –yet are not always getting the attention that will resolve them.
– Michele Wucker, March 15, 2018

When our suspicions about the current global expansion a…

The scenarios of the collapse

2019-01-112020-04-22
by Tuomas Malinen
Bonds, Central banks, China, Credit, English, Financial markets, Global economy

2019 has started more calmly after a very volatile year-end in the markets. Focus has been on the trade deal between China and the US and the words of the central bankers, most notably those of Jay Powell. However, this is all just a distraction, a s…

Q-Review 4/2018: The path to the Global Depression

2018-12-182020-04-27
by Tuomas Malinen
Bonds, Central banks, Credit, English, Financial crisis, Global economy, Growth forecasts

The world economy has never faced a more perilous situation. While many have just started to debate whether a recession will start in 2019 or 2020, very few perceive the ‘black hole’ the global economy is about to get sucked into.

The hole has two…

The end of the most manipulated business cycle — ever

2018-12-062020-04-27
by Tuomas Malinen
Bonds, Central banks, China, Credit, Emerging markets, English, Financial crisis, Global economy, Preparation, Stock market

Whatever has the nature of arising, has the nature of… Read More »The end of the most manipulated business cycle — ever