The end of the ‘Chinese Miracle’
We have been following China closely for nearly four years. We first warned about the unsustainability of China’s growth in March 2017 and have continued to issue w...
Q-Review 4/2019: Into the Abyss
The economic calm which has succeeded the turbulent conclusion to 2018 was abruptly shattered on the 16th of September. On that day, rates in the repo markets spiked by 248 basis points to more than double the overnight lending rate of the...
Repo-market turmoil: staring into the financial abyss?
One thing has been bothering us for six years. How can so many economists and economic commentators dismiss the ever-increasing market meddling of central banks so lightly? The first time we warned about this possible threat to financial markets w...
China (and the world economy) at the end of the road
We have been monitoring China closely since March 2017. We were one of the first to show that China had driven the global business cycle since 2009 and that the rem...
The destruction of the European banking sector
For some reason, the dire situation of European banks is not causing further alarm. This is strange, as it is the exact place where the new global banking crisis is likely to start. What makes it even stranger is that recession is approaching the ...
Crisis Preparation II: The Eurozone
The European Monetary Union (EMU) has been a bold, but fundamental flawed experiment. It has sown the seeds of divergence in economic well-being, politics and it has “zombified” the banking sector in Europe. For investors, it has created the possibil...
Don’t trust the liquidity
There is renewed hope in the markets after central banks, most-recently the ECB and China, have added easing measures. The working narrative is that these will, once again, renew global growth and allow governments, corporations and consumers to go e...
Q-Review 3/2019: The Endgame
A recession is approaching. Almost anywhere in the world one looks, economic indicators are in decline. As we have argued since March 2017, the coming recession wil...