The destruction of the European banking sector
For some reason, the dire situation of European banks is not causing further alarm. This is strange, as it is the exact place where the new global banking crisis is likely to start. What makes it even stranger is that recession is approaching the ...
Crisis Preparation II: The Eurozone
The European Monetary Union (EMU) has been a bold, but fundamental flawed experiment. It has sown the seeds of divergence in economic well-being, politics and it has “zombified” the banking sector in Europe. For investors, it has created the possibil...
Don’t trust the liquidity
There is renewed hope in the markets after central banks, most-recently the ECB and China, have added easing measures. The working narrative is that these will, once again, renew global growth and allow governments, corporations and consumers to go e...
Q-Review 3/2019: The Endgame
A recession is approaching. Almost anywhere in the world one looks, economic indicators are in decline. As we have argued since March 2017, the coming recession wil...
Will central banks survive?
Almost all economists and the vast majority of the general population erroneously believe that central banks are, basically, indestructible. And most fail to appreciate that central banks are different from normal commercial banks in just two respect...
Where from here?
Global stock markets have been wobbly after the Federal Reserve failed to impress and the trade war heated-up. Combined with the weakening global economic outlook, there are not many reasons for stocks to rally. Many are also wondering about the d...
A tale of two deflations
This post has been co-written with Dr. Peter Nyberg. Japanification is a term that has re-emerged recently. It r...
It works, until it doesn't
As expected, increased ’dovishness’ by the Fed has gotten markets rallying. Both the S&P 500 and DJIA have touched new highs. From the perspective of late last year, such massive rallies seemed unlikely indeed. While some kind of a Fed pivot was ...
June 2019 Forecasts
Since our recession call in March, we have received a fair number of questions about how and why. To give a clearer picture of our view, and on our services, we are publishing ...