Global economy

Q-Review 3/2019: The Endgame

2019-09-102020-04-27
by Tuomas Malinen
Central banks, English, Financial crisis, Forecasts, Global economy, Recession

A recession is approaching. Almost anywhere in the world one looks, economic indicators are in decline. As we have argued since March 2017, the coming recession wil…

Will central banks survive?

2019-08-262020-04-22
by Tuomas Malinen
Central banks, English, Financial markets, Global economy

Almost all economists and the vast majority of the general population erroneously believe that central banks are, basically, indestructible. And most fail to appreciate that central banks are different from normal commercial banks in just two respect…

Where from here?

2019-08-082020-04-27
by Tuomas Malinen
Central banks, China, English, Global economy, Recession

Global stock markets have been wobbly after the Federal Reserve failed to impress and the trade war heated-up. Combined with the weakening global economic outlook, there are not many reasons for stocks to rally.

Many are also wondering about the d…

It works, until it doesn’t

2019-07-262020-04-22
by Tuomas Malinen
Central banks, China, Economic growth, English, Financial crisis, Global economy, Recession

As expected, increased ’dovishness’ by the Fed has gotten markets rallying. Both the S&P 500 and DJIA have touched new highs. From the perspective of late last year, such massive rallies seemed unlikely indeed. While some kind of a Fed pivot was …

Recession cometh

2019-03-272020-04-23
by Tuomas Malinen
Bonds, Central banks, China, Credit, English, Global economy, Growth forecasts, Recession, Zombie companies

Errata in the third paragraph (“steepening” -> “flattening”) corrected in 04/08.

Yield curve inversion has spooked the markets. In all honesty, it should not have come as a surprise. After the Federal Reserve pivoted early January and …

The world economy: The way of Japan?

2019-03-182020-04-22
by Tuomas Malinen
Central banks, China, English, Financial crisis, Global economy, Zombie companies

Some have started to speculate that the world economy will… Read More »The world economy: The way of Japan?

The dangerous zombie infestation (of the world economy)

2019-03-112020-04-22
by Tuomas Malinen
Economic growth, English, Financial markets, Global economy, Zombie companies

It is estimated that over 14% of companies in the S&P 1500 are zombies. In China, roughly 20 percent of A-sha…

Why the global growth model is broken

2019-03-052020-05-10
by Tuomas Malinen
Central banks, Credit, Economic growth, English, Eurozone, Global economy, Growth forecasts, Stock market

For some years now, we’ve been very wary of the legitimacy of the “economic recovery”.

The failing engines of global growth

2019-02-172020-04-27
by Tuomas Malinen
Central banks, China, Economic growth, English, Global economy, Zombie companies

The global slowdown has been much discussed lately. A slowdown in Europe and China was considered to be the main reason for the December stock market rout combined with the balance sheet normalization (QT) program of the Federal Reserve. What is behi…

Manias, Panics and Crashes. History repeats.

2019-02-072020-04-28
by Tuomas Malinen
Central banks, Credit, English, Financial crisis, Financial markets, Global economy, Preparation

The stock market has been rallying lately. It has been supported by the People’s Bank of China (PBoC), which started its liquidity operations in mid-December, and the Federal Reserve (Fed), which changed to a much more ‘dovish’ tone in January. But, …