We are pleased to introduce our new Deprcon service. This offering consists of both an event-related alert service and monthly outlooks.
Monthly outlooks monitor the global liquidity situation, for example, stimulus in China (presently the biggest driver of the global business cycle) and economic developments in the U.S., China and the Eurozone.
Event-related alerts provide a warning to all our customers on economic or political developments that may cause short- or longer-term market disruptions. The alerts are delivered by email.
An example of the outlook can be downloaded from here: Deprcon Outlook January 2020
Examples of a warnings:
29/1/2020: Deprcon warning: Coronavirus
23/2/2020: Deprcon: stock market warning
27/2/2020: Deprcon warning: Coronavirus
2/3/2020: Deprcon: Recession warning
8/3/2020: Deprcon warning: stock market crash
11/3/2020 Deprcon warning: Capital market collapse
19/3/2020 Deprcon: Asset markets
The service can also be ordered by an invoice from: email@example.com
The Deprcon-index is a close proximity estimate on the outlook of the economy and financial markets. In practice it is assumed to cover the next 1-2 quarters.
Values above three indicate an economic expansion and values below three indicate a downturn. If the indicator gives a value of 3, it signals that the economy is at a turning point. Value 2 gives a recession warning, while value 4 signals the start of an expansion. Extreme values indicate either that an economy is in danger of overheating (5) or that is heading to a recession/depression (1).
We construct the estimate using information on the stock market, financial markets and our recession and crisis probability forecasts. This means that even if an economy is growing strongly, our outlook for it may be negative if recession and/or crisis probabilities are high.