Deprcon Service
We are pleased to introduce our Deprcon Service. This offering consists of both an event-related alert service, monthly outlooks and preparation reports. You can order the online service (newsletter) to be delivered to your email from GNS Newsletter
Monthly outlooks monitor the global liquidity situation, for example, stimulus in China (presently the biggest driver of the global business cycle) and economic developments in the U.S., China and the Eurozone.
Event-related alerts provide a warning to all our customers on economic or political developments that may cause short- or longer-term market disruptions. The alerts are delivered by email.
Preparation reports present means by which subscribers can position themselves optimally both during the crisis and for its aftermath. You can find older reports from here: Crisis preparation
Examples of the outlooks: GNS Newsletter
Deprcon Outlook February 2022 (costs of war)
Examples of a warnings:GNS Newsletter
04/08/2023 Deprcon warning: Asset markets: Into a precarious August
04/05/2022 Deprcon warning: The Fed and the asset markets
05/02/2021 Deprcon warning: Asset market "schizophrenia"
11/12/2020 Deprcon warning: Political uncertainty
16/11/2020 Deprcon warning: The U.S. Presidential elections
19/3/2020 Deprcon: Asset markets
11/3/2020 Deprcon warning: Capital market collapse
8/3/2020 Deprcon warning: Stock market crash
2/3/2020: Deprcon: Recession warning
27/2/2020: Deprcon warning: Coronavirus
23/2/2020 Deprcon: Stock market warning
29/1/2020 Deprcon warning: Coronavirus
The Deprcon-index is a close proximity estimate on the outlook of the economy and financial markets. In practice it is assumed to cover the next 1-2 quarters.
Values above three indicate an economic expansion and values below three indicate a downturn. If the indicator gives a value of 3, it signals that the economy is at a turning point. Value 2 gives a recession warning, while value 4 signals the start of an expansion. Extreme values indicate either that an economy is in danger of overheating (5) or that is heading to a recession/depression (1).
We construct the estimate using information on the stock market, financial markets and our recession and crisis probability forecasts. This means that even if an economy is growing strongly, our outlook for it may be negative if recession and/or crisis probabilities are high.
This service provides both annual and monthly billing options. GNS Newsletter
Deprcon
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