China (and the world economy) at the end of the road
We have been monitoring China closely since March 2017. We were one of the first to show that China had driven the global business cycle since 2009 and that the rem…
Central banks
Towards the crisis
The world economy has not been in a more precarious situation in over a decade. Growth is faltering everywhere, with the Eurozone flirting with recession, while central banks have returned to monetary easing after just one year of global tightening.
Don’t trust the liquidity
There is renewed hope in the markets after central banks, most-recently the ECB and China, have added easing measures. The working narrative is that these will, once again, renew global growth and allow governments, corporations and consumers to go e…
Will central banks survive?
Almost all economists and the vast majority of the general population erroneously believe that central banks are, basically, indestructible. And most fail to appreciate that central banks are different from normal commercial banks in just two respect…
Where from here?
Global stock markets have been wobbly after the Federal Reserve failed to impress and the trade war heated-up. Combined with the weakening global economic outlook, there are not many reasons for stocks to rally.
Many are also wondering about the d…
Recession cometh
Errata in the third paragraph (“steepening” -> “flattening”) corrected in 04/08.
Yield curve inversion has spooked the markets. In all honesty, it should not have come as a surprise. After the Federal Reserve pivoted early January and …
The world economy: The way of Japan?
Some have started to speculate that the world economy will… Read More »The world economy: The way of Japan?
The scenarios of the collapse
2019 has started more calmly after a very volatile year-end in the markets. Focus has been on the trade deal between China and the US and the words of the central bankers, most notably those of Jay Powell. However, this is all just a distraction, a s…
Central bank, my Libor’s keeper?
The sudden and fast rise in the London Interbank Offered… Read More »Central bank, my Libor’s keeper?
Quantitative tightening: to boldly go where no CB has gone before
Since early February, the financial markets have been wobbly. After the deep plunge (worst point-wise fall) of the Dow Jones in February 5, the stock markets have recovered but the market volatility has remained elevated. Many have blamed the rising…