Central banks

The destruction of the world economy by the Central Banks

2020-10-082020-10-15
by Tuomas Malinen
Banks, Central banks, Economic growth, Financial crisis, Zombie companies

For years, we have been warning about dire consequences if… Read More »The destruction of the world economy by the Central Banks

Are we heading to another ’Great Crash’ (of 1929)?

2020-09-232020-10-17
by Tuomas Malinen
Central banks, China, Financial crisis, Global depression, Global economy, Recession, Stock market

Stock markets have been wobbly of late. The peak in… Read More »Are we heading to another ’Great Crash’ (of 1929)?

China (and the world economy) at the end of the road

2019-11-202020-04-28
by Tuomas Malinen
Central banks, China, English, Global depression, Global economy

We have been monitoring China closely since March 2017. We were one of the first to show that China had driven the global business cycle since 2009 and that the rem…

Towards the crisis

2019-10-152020-04-27
by Tuomas Malinen
Banks, English, Financial crisis, Financial markets, Global depression, Global economy

The world economy has not been in a more precarious situation in over a decade. Growth is faltering everywhere, with the Eurozone flirting with recession, while central banks have returned to monetary easing after just one year of global tightening.

Don’t trust the liquidity

2019-09-122020-05-10
by Tuomas Malinen
Central banks, China, Economic growth, English, Financial crisis, Global economy, Recession

There is renewed hope in the markets after central banks, most-recently the ECB and China, have added easing measures. The working narrative is that these will, once again, renew global growth and allow governments, corporations and consumers to go e…

Will central banks survive?

2019-08-262020-04-22
by Tuomas Malinen
Central banks, English, Financial markets, Global economy

Almost all economists and the vast majority of the general population erroneously believe that central banks are, basically, indestructible. And most fail to appreciate that central banks are different from normal commercial banks in just two respect…

Where from here?

2019-08-082020-04-27
by Tuomas Malinen
Central banks, China, English, Global economy, Recession

Global stock markets have been wobbly after the Federal Reserve failed to impress and the trade war heated-up. Combined with the weakening global economic outlook, there are not many reasons for stocks to rally.

Many are also wondering about the d…

Recession cometh

2019-03-272020-09-05
by Tuomas Malinen
Bonds, Central banks, China, Credit, English, Global economy, Growth forecasts, Recession, Zombie companies

Errata in the third paragraph (“steepening” -> “flattening”) corrected in 04/08.

Yield curve inversion has spooked the markets. In all honesty, it should not have come as a surprise. After the Federal Reserve pivoted early January and …

The world economy: The way of Japan?

2019-03-182020-04-22
by Tuomas Malinen
Central banks, China, English, Financial crisis, Global economy, Zombie companies

Some have started to speculate that the world economy will… Read More »The world economy: The way of Japan?

The scenarios of the collapse

2019-01-112020-04-22
by Tuomas Malinen
Bonds, Central banks, China, Credit, English, Financial markets, Global economy

2019 has started more calmly after a very volatile year-end in the markets. Focus has been on the trade deal between China and the US and the words of the central bankers, most notably those of Jay Powell. However, this is all just a distraction, a s…