Recession cometh

Errata in the third paragraph (“steepening” -> “flattening”) corrected in 04/08.

Yield curve inversion has spooked the markets. In all honesty, it should not have come as a surprise. After the Federal Reserve pivoted early January and …

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The failing engines of global growth

The global slowdown has been much discussed lately. A slowdown in Europe and China was considered to be the main reason for the December stock market rout combined with the balance sheet normalization (QT) program of the Federal Reserve. What is behi…

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Manias, Panics and Crashes. History repeats.

The stock market has been rallying lately. It has been supported by the People’s Bank of China (PBoC), which started its liquidity operations in mid-December, and the Federal Reserve (Fed), which changed to a much more ‘dovish’ tone in January. But, …

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The Gray Rhino known as China

The highly obvious, probable threats that nobody should say they never saw coming –yet are not always getting the attention that will resolve them.
– Michele Wucker, March 15, 2018

When our suspicions about the current global expansion a…

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The scenarios of the collapse

2019 has started more calmly after a very volatile year-end in the markets. Focus has been on the trade deal between China and the US and the words of the central bankers, most notably those of Jay Powell. However, this is all just a distraction, a s…

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